Hypothesizing Scenarios on the Epidemic Spread and Response Measures A Study at UoB Proposes Mathematical Models to Limit the Spread of Corona

Sakhir – University of Bahrain (Khadijah Abdusalem)

12 June 2023

A scientific study at the University of Bahrain (UoB) proposed mathematical models to control the spread of the Corona virus (Covid-19) in the Kingdom of Bahrain, and to take optimal measures according to the epidemic’s developments, as part of the precautionary measures that limit its spread in the Kingdom of Bahrain.

The study aimed to examine the impact of the precautionary measures taken by Bahrain to limit the spread of the Corona virus during the years 2020 and 2021, confirming that the number of recorded infected cases was less than expected, except for some periods in which the number of infections increased.

The study was conducted by a student in the Environment and Sustainable Development PhD program, Mona Abdulkarim Al-Sayegh, under the title “Mathematical Modeling of Corona virus transmission and Control in the Kingdom of Bahrain”.

The researcher suggested using the (SUQCR) model as an indicator that shows the possibility of increasing or decreasing precautionary measures, and the (SVEUQCHR) model, based on a game theory approach, to determine the optimal choice for individuals between vaccination and social distancing, by comparing it with the risk of infection. For example, it showed that the best option for individuals was to choose vaccination in the absence of social distancing, when its cost is equal to the risk of infection for unvaccinated individuals, and if vaccination is not available, then individuals are to choose to apply social distancing when its cost is equal to the risk of infection without vaccination.

The study results concluded that vaccination with its initial and booster doses reduces the number of infected individuals, critical cases, and deaths due to the Corona epidemic (Covid-19).

Al-Sayegh recommended precautionary measures be followed individually and collectively to control the spread of Corona disease (Covid-19), and that all residents take vaccination to combat the disease outbreak, in addition to preparing more studies and mathematical models to control the spread of infectious diseases in Bahrain.

The student’s thesis discussion committee consisted of Associate Professor at the Department of Mathematics, Dr. Muhannad Jamal Shahwan, as an internal examiner, and the Professor at the Department of Computer Science, King Faisal University, Saudi Arabia, Dr. Alaa Mohammed Sagheer, as an external examiner. While the thesis was supervised by Associate Professor at the Department of Mathematics, Dr. Nasser Metwally Mohammed.

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